Three regime-shifts overturned earlier assumptions (mid-2026): the ECB is hiking, not easing; the Fed had a hawkish regime change (Warsh) with US CPI re-accelerating; and Hungary's Ukraine-accession veto is gone. Romanian disinflation was revised the wrong way (end-2026 CPI ~5.5%, up from ~3.7%). These reset the whole thesis.
The geopolitical map
The 2026 backdrop is a set of theaters: a war in the east, an oil shock in the Gulf, an AI melt-up in the US, a fragile government at home. Pick a factor to light up the part of the world it bears on, and read what it means for the core and the ≤20% sleeve; hover a highlighted country to see which forces touch it. Colour is the net read: risk, opportunity, or two-sided.
Per-axis read: core vs the ≤20% sleeve
Sharpest facts: Romania's government fell (5 May 2026) and the sovereign sits at
Fitch BBB-/negative, one notch from junk; the structural EU-defense/rearmament theme is the
cleanest multi-year sleeve tailwind. Net: defensive posture. Sources &
caveats (incl. unverified war specifics): process/1-inputs/geopolitical-context.md.
Market trends snapshot 2026-06-29
The defining tension this snapshot exposes: Romanian inflation is 10.9% YoY (May 2026), above every safe yield available (BNR 6.50%, RO 10Y ~6.85%, best tax-free RON bond 7.60%). So "beat inflation with a low-risk core" is, at today's prints, impossible with safe instruments alone unless the central bank's projected H2-2026 disinflation arrives. The decisions and the persona debate confront this directly.
Every safe RON yield on BT Trade falls short of the dashed inflation line: the chart the whole strategy hangs off.
The dated levels
The hidden AI concentration
Why a "diversified" global tracker is, in practice, a concentrated AI bet: the reason the sleeve is governed by a look-through ceiling, not a headline size.
Five-year building blocks (interactive)
Calendar-year total returns rebased to 100 at end-2020. Click a legend entry to toggle a series; hover for the year-by-year readout. Mixed currency bases are intentional (a RO investor's reality); per-block basis & sources are on Strategies.
Full figures, sources & caveats: process/1-inputs/market-trends.md.
The granular factors
Zoom from the map and the markets into every individual force. Our four debate personas each read every factor differently; pick a voice to spotlight what it says across all 23 factors at once, or open any card for all four.